Mr Wolff:

If North’s rebid of 2NT shows 18-19, what does he bid with a balanced 16-18?

Thanks.

Once you have cashed the spades in the South hand, and then the diamonds in the North hand, you have eliminated the side entries in both hands and are reduced to two possible plays of the heart suit, regardless of what distribution has been counted for the opponents: Either cash the ace hoping for a singleton jack or a 3-3 split (~38.5% without count information), or take a first round finesse of the ten (50% without count information). Due to shortage of entries, there is no longer any way to pick up a doubleton jack of hearts by cashing honors, which to start with was a 16% chance. Was it the correct play to use up all the side entries in hope of a definitive count?

If you instead leave one spade entry in South, one diamond entry in North, cash the king of hearts and lead the 4 of hearts from dummy, do the odds favor finessing or playing the ace?

Hi Michael,

Ah my dear Watson, the question posed suggests that the questioner is either from Canada or if not, from its mother country the UK, where the weak opening NT (12-14) is often practiced. Therefore for column purposes since it is imagined that the NS pair is playing strong NT 15-17, you have your answer. Written by an American author, but questioned by British heritage.

Of course, both point counts are played around the world and as to what is best, I’ll defer to someone who has a stronger opinion than I. Weak NT works best for preemptive purposes, but strong NT is a tad safer and allows major suit fits to be discovered earlier. As Nathan Detroit of Guys and Dolls fame might have said, “You pays your money you takes your choice”.

Greetings Doug,

Your analysis is right on and without being able to quote odds to favor my choices I’ll let you benefit (or perhaps not) by my experience. Since the opening lead was somewhat risky my overall take is that the red suits seemed to be balanced for with even Jxxx of hearts the opening leader may have preferred to lead a safe (perhaps too much so) diamond. Also 3 little hearts is a safer lead than are 2 little, but it was not led.

A direct answer to your question is, Yes I prefer to give up on the straight Jx in West’s hand in order to try and discover what other combination exists. In other words, the underrated poker element in our great game always seems to lure me into seeking how the hand lies, and after 60+ years of plying my trade I still have no idea whether this has served me well or not.

Your final question about whether to finesse the 10 of hearts or not, without getting a definitive diamond count and an inferential spade count is an impossible one to answer, but I’ll suggest not finessing and taking advantage of the straight percentages, but being a very old dog, I would still rather rely on my nose (which is rather large, but as Cyrano might have said, “What is a fella to do except perhaps be able to smell better”).

In conclusion, knowing one’s opponents, their experience and their tendencies, is worth a great deal. Also it is true that inexperienced players sometimes get nervous if they are possessing a holding they would like to hide such as Jxxx in hearts. Add everything up and still guess, but in any event it is all great fun.

Thanks for writing!

I now see the answer to my second question is obvious. The losing play of the ace, which gains when West has 2 or three cards including the jack(26%), and loses when East has 4 or 5 cards including the jack(22.25%), would be the percentage play.

As for the first question, I suppose the discovery play as in the published hand might gain more often than it loses. But it certainly could lose (suppose West showed up with only 2 diamonds?) by limiting play options.