The suggested line of play is correct, but there is one tiny fly in the ointment. After drawing 2 rounds of trump and finding west with a trump trick, the contract will nonetheless still always make if east has the king of diamonds or if hearts break 3-3. But when south cashes the heart king and leads a second heart, what if west and east both follow suit? No problem if hearts are 3-3 or if they are 4-2 with east having the four. But what if it turns out that west has four? Presumably south attempts to return to his hand with a club to lead another heart. If he does so, he will go down if west has four hearts, a club void & the king of diamonds, because west will ruff the club and safely exit with a heart. Boy, that’s a really small possibility, but it is possible.

Actually, under those circumstances, south could STILL make the contract by squeezing west in hearts and diamonds. Interestingly, the squeeze is a 2 to 1 favorite to work! (west is known to have exactly 3 spades, 4 hearts & no clubs, therefore 6 diamonds, which leaves only 3 diamonds for east). So, south should play for the squeeze, but he still might fail, but now only when east has the king of diamonds.

Hi David,

Yes, you are correct, as usual, in your considerable analysis, of course also in your final critical decision of who the percentages dictate as to whom to play for holding the king of diamonds.

As you imply also, that if West does hold the king during your squeeze play you will have forced him to discard down to the singleton king in order for him to keep the critical high heart at the death.

The only other tool the declarer would have to work with is before the critical diamond decision that he should then reconstruct West’s hand, 3 spades, 4 hearts, 6 diamonds, and void in clubs. Then he should remember the bidding or rather lack of a diamond overcall (if so, certainly holding the king). However, since his side was vulnerable and at the 2 level, whether or not he held the king could not be determined since he was just too weak to overcall in either case. However, as you so properly said, he would be more likely to have been dealt the king since he had 6 diamonds to his partner’s 3 making it more likely mathematically, for West, rather than East to hold the king by a ratio of 6 to 3.

Another factor perhaps is that while 6 spades is a likely final contract at the other table of this team game, the declarer at that table will likely finesse in diamonds rather than attempt to execute this squeeze so all in all, you “pays your money you takes your choice”. “Ain’t bridge great, or what”?

Still another possible interesting tidbit, at least to me, is that when West unexpectedly ruffs the first club and exits with a heart, a NUMERATE declarer (minority of people), after the heart play has been completed, will immediately think in terms of West originally holding a 3-4-6-0 original hand if only because sheer numbers always occupies his thoughts.

“Little by little we learn great things”, if only for the playing of bridge application.

Thanks, David, for creating a hypothetical situation which might interest many bridge lovers, especially numerate ones.