West playing the JH under the KH ….

Hi Jim2,

Yes, that particular falsecard would awaken the local graveyard, but probably the best solution for declarer would be a second high heart from hand, rejoicing with both opponents following and then setting up the clubs with the eventual ace of hearts entry to make an overtrick. If the second heart confirms them being 4-1 then after hearts are all extracted, a simple club finesse seems best.

Also, isn’t it at least a possibility that declarer has K10xxx in hearts. In any event no declarer would like you either on his right or his left and I guess being a feared defender, becomes at least one step up in winning the battle, if not the war.

Can it be made if West had been honest with:

J1092

J

Q975

Q872

I ask because I recall someone saying you had a little voice that could tell you.

Of course, two finesses cannot be done due to the early cashing of the AC.

Hi Jim2,

I realize the prose suggests the cashing of the ace of clubs first, but because of the restricted entries, cashing the high club is not the best percentage play, although it could be right in an unlikely situation where the singleton queen drops which would then allow us to play the hearts to better advantage.

Sometimes, in the interest of clarity and emphasis some details are often left not discussed or worse, just wrong, not that we are anywhere near good enough to always cover all the bases, especially against your tough questioning. Keep on coming, which will only cause us to try harder.

sorry I’m late …but why play heart king “and queen” ?

just in case there is a singleton clubs together with two hearts ? that’s much less probable than 50% of a 4-1 (in clubs). If you keep the heart queen you can pick later the heart jack fourth on the right, and that’s almost 50% of a 4-1 (in hearts).

You shouldn’t put the heart ten in South, I think, for the text be correct.

Many thanks for your attention

AR –

The probabilities of 5-card splits are about:

– 5-0 — 4%

– 4-1 — 28%

– 3-2 — 68%

The thrust of the column line is playing for both hearts and clubs to split 3-2. Playing for the clubs to be 3-2 (68%) is thus better than the 50% club finesse. (Playing the trump king and then the queen – leaving the ace in dummy – lets the ace be the entry to the clubs after ruffing/discarding on the third round, drawing the last trump in the process, if necessary)

Playing the heart king and then the ace would indeed let you pick up East’s Jxxx – that would mean trump could be drawn without loss both for all 3-2 splits and also for the 1-4 holdings (ignoring jack singletons, about half the additional 28% because the Jxxx-x holdings would not be). Thus, the heart suit success probability might be 68% + ~14% = ~82%.

However, this would make you dependent on the 50% club finesse, for a total probability of 82% x 50% = 41%.

Playing it in the column fashion succeeds when both suits are 3-2 or, roughly, 68% x 68% = ~46%.

My numbers above are approximations, but I believe they are generally correct. Among the nuances I omitted is that the opening lead pretty much places three cards in the West hand but only two in the East (J109 versus KQ of spades), thus making East slightly less likely to hold 4 hearts than otherwise.

I was teasing our esteemed host because the printed sequence of plays was less than optimum in that a slightly different sequence catered to an additional few low probability layouts.

Ooops – typo alert!

I meant “East slighly MORE likely”.

(That’ll teach me to rewrite as I go. Also, without computer software, I could never quantify such nuances at the table, anyway. No expert am I as, for example, I discounted West leading from KJ109, but is that right?)