“(Yes, a club shift would have worked better, but that is far from obvious.)”

I am not so sure about that.

Declarer would presumably hope for a later squeeze (if both red suits break poorly) or end play. Once there is a club shift, as long as declarer does not squander the either black ace early, it looks to me like declarer must prevail.

That is, declarer can now always arrange to have five black suit rounds get played (losing three and winning two) and be on lead. Declarer cashes AK D, the top hearts and has a good enough count to throw East in with the last heart for a forced diamond return.

Hi Folks,

Isn’t this a bit double dummy? What if South has SQ10x and CAKQ, for example? East is going to be very brave or reckless to switch here as the absence of the S3 and the fact that West won’t have SQJ10 all point to West having 5 spades. If South had SA1043 he is grabbing T1 and possibly paying a spade back.

Regards,

Iain

Hi Jim2,

Yes, you could be right when you say declarer can still get home, but he needs deft guessing in deciding how the minor suits are splitting and since one of declarer’s usual advantages of putting oneself into East’s mind and basing his distributional guessing at least in part on why East switched to a club rather than continuing spades at trick 2, he, at least in my mind, may decide long, but wind up guessing wrong.

BTW, the above is why we decided to suggest a club switch may be better, but in actuality, while it may be, is somewhat far out when considering the possible exact makeup of declarer’s original hand (one not so unlikely holding is for West to have started with AJ763 of spades instead of the queen, with declarer having the queen of clubs to go with his KJ to compensate for his lesser spade holding or even OMG a solid club holding with less in one red suit or another).

For what it is worth and especially at the high level and in important events (usually, but not always) a very good pair whose East switches to a club at trick 2 with his actual hand becomes somewhat solid evidence that the EW pair may be doing something nefarious. BCSI anyone, with B referring to bridge.

In any event, thanks for your comment, but you may be suffering from IRW (imagination running wild).

OK. West could have SAJ76 or AQ76 but these are precise holdings and the latter especially is an unappealing lead.

You are the expert, not moi, but East’s club shift would almost certainly be the 9C to prevent a duck to the Board, revealing the location of the KJ10X when declarer plays low and West also ducks to allow a continuation.

Hi Jim2,

Yes with East’s actual club holding the nine would be the correct card to switch to, (assuming East was honest and somehow decided to switch, like Hamlet’s soliloquy, to others which we know not of) it would be incumbent on declarer to win the ace, run off his 6 red suit winners and then depending on West’s discards, either drop the now singleton king of clubs (after 2 discards from West) or ignominiously end play him by leading ace and a spade forcing him to give you the last club trick for number nine.

Again, for what it is worth, East’s choice of the nine of clubs switch might suggest to me that West started with 6 spades to the QJ and West with only a singleton king, possibly leaving West with only KJ10 tripleton, therein causing me to consider ducking the club return, hoping to eventually endplay West when neither red suit cooperated for 4 tricks.

Hi Bobby,

Would you pass with the south BWTA hand originally to see if the opps go to four spades, then decide whether to sacrifice? They might not have a game, and five diamonds will get doubled, I imagine. If only down one, terrific, but not so good down two if the opps don’t have anything more than plus 140 or 170 if they don’t advance to four spades. Just curious.

Thanks. You and Judy had a nice sectional. Well done!

Hi Jane,

I’m not a fan on sneak up on them and if they bid game then consider a sacrifice. I’m an immediate 5 diamond bidder here, if for no other reason than to put some fear in the opponents that I may have the distribution to make 11 tricks.

There is no possible way to determine who can make what, but my cards, one defensive trick and my length in diamonds not helping our defensive potential makes me believe that the opponents are at least 80+% to make their game, but, if we get lucky, not be able to take 11 tricks, so force them to make a decision now when everyone has to be just guessing who can make what.

Thanks for the kind words and although we did OK, we always realize, especially last week, that if we had played better, we would have done better.

Always good luck to you with green lights and blue skies to be in your future.