E should play a small D at trick 1. S can still make his contract by one of 2 ways: 1) win the trick with a high D & play as Halberg did, or 2) win cheaply, ruff a H, take the C finesse, and then cash the CA. I rather doubt that any declarer would find either line. I believe that E, as he contemplates what to play at trick 1, can foresee the possible endplay and thus should play a low D. Of course, this will not succeed if S has 6 clubs, but then nothing will succeed.

Hi David,

You, as usual, have done a wonderful job of analysis, especially to see the ending created by East to try and avoid being end played at the death, in diamonds.

However, I disagree with any human being (no matter how good), being able to foresee this ending. Not that it is impossible to ascertain, but rather to be able to almost visualize declarer’s exact hand, with as little practical time available while playing, becomes surreal
and thus difficult or even virtually impossible, to contemplate.

Upon analysis, it does become possible, even likely, that being NV and having heard partner pass originally that West might try a tactical Michaels cue bid (major suit takeout) at his first turn (with an eventual major suit profitable sacrifice in mind).

West decided against it (probably because he feared that a sacrifice may only be valuable against a vulnerable slam the other way making that effort a poor percentage choice), but whatever his reason, his choice of 1 heart and then continuing later is just a wild stab, perhaps occurring, but wildly unlikely to predict.

None of the above is a suggestion from me for you to not use your superior bridge imagination to create double dummy analysis.

All I am discussing is for you to not overrate the ability of even really great bridge players to perform with over the top super plays, here subtly at trick one, pertaining to trick twelve.

Hi Bobby, David,

Can declarer counter by playing the D9 to get an extra entry to take the club finesse then ruff a heart. If east covers, we’re back to the column – or are we? Does the D8 now mess up the endplay? In this case I think east does have to cover.

Regards,

Iain

Hi Iain,

Assuming, whether the nine is played or not at trick one, you try and show me the East who can play low quickly and I’ll show you a player who has seen the hand records.

So much of the discussion on this hand and its defending, playing and even bidding before, and after trick one, two and three will result in declarer playing East, once the club finesse works, to now play for them to be 2-2 or, if not, play for East to have at least 3 diamonds and bang down the ace.

The above, although somewhat (maybe a tiny bit) results oriented, will read much into the actual bidding or if not, consider the distribution if West had used Michaels, instead of just overcalling, would, for sure suggest the diamonds to be 1-4 enabling the losing spade to be discarded before the defense can do damage.

Perhaps this hand would enable a different discussion about, as declarer, but sometimes even on defense, assumptions (particularly when involving very good players) produce almost certain truths which can be relied upon, not quite as much, but almost, as mathematical certainties.

While my experiences could be illusory in my mind, the hands I think I remember have much to do about verifying what I have just said, maybe perhaps because of the little there is to be learned from mathematical certainties, but a new horizon may dawn with the detective work done with intuitive decisions based on the opponents knowing what they are doing and the inflexible disciplines which always, at least it seems, go with.