Bobby

I think had declarer played a 2nd high spade and ruffed a third spade, he should then ruff a club to clarify that position, West could have led from 2 or 3 small
or KJ98, although the latter seems pretty unlikely. Declarer now knows that
West has 7 spades and most likely 3 clubs. He must also have a least 1 heart or
East would have 5 and would have led 1 at trick 2 to give partner a ruff. When
declarer then plays the diamond king with West following his only unknown card
is almost certainly a heart or diamond, with a very small possibility of it
being a club, but that small probability is probably enough to finesse for the diamond queen. It really seems that it’s almost 50-50, some table feel would
certainly help.

As both the column and Bob are saying, declarer could have tried to get more information on the distribution. As the card lay, he would have been successful but I think that there are quite a few layouts where he has to play the percentages or where he simply has to guess. Any hand where West has no more than 6 spades and no more than 4 clubs with all the points to him, less CA, qualify. This would be more in line with his 1S overcall. I hope I’m not missing anything.

On the other hand, assuming that N-S can find out early that they’re missing one key card plus the queen of trumps, is the small slam still worth bidding?

Hi Bobby,

On BWTA, would you still pass at matchpoints? I would be more tempted to bid 2S in this case.

Mircea1 –

What about in hearts? After all, the 2h bid by N showed 5 and the 2S bid by S suggested heart fit.

Jim2,

I know that there are methods of identifying the trump kings and queens in double-fit situations (Roman Key Card 6 – where both kings count as key cards – nicely documented in Eddie Kantar’s book on RKCB). Assuming such methods are employed allowing North to find out that his partner has at least 3 hearts with the queen and probably 5 diamonds but surely without the queen, is 6H better than 6D? I guess that’s what you’re asking?

I had two points, really.

First, if N-S explored for a heart slam, they would have discovered they were missing one key card but had the queen of trump, making it more likely they would continue to slam.

Second, I do think hearts is the better slam because trumps can be drawn and more distribution information can be gleaned before the diamond decision.

Hi Bob,

Thanks for both your dedicated opinion and the effort you gave expressing it.

The only addition(s) I would attempt to include is that experienced players tend (and should) to be aggressive while leading against a small slam (the rationale is to either miraculously cash two quick tricks (unlikely vs. good slam bidders) or just to establish a setting trick so that when in with the trick expected to be lost by the declaring side, the defense will have established the setter. Here, since clubs were not bid but West had bid spades and his partner had always passed, it is extremely unlikely that East had both the ace and king, therefore making it likely that the opening leader had at least 3 clubs.

Of course, you are right on that if East had 5 small hearts and once South jump supported hearts no doubt West would have at least a singleton heart and even with a singleton West may have led it hoping their defensive trick was East’s heart ace instead of the club ace.

Please keep in mind that all these assumptions by both sides are not rocket science, but merely just judgment based on their hands and thus West holding some singleton (on this hand, diamonds) may have made Wests hand good enough to overcall rather than Qx instead.

Certainly not conclusive like in the other room when a preempt was offered, but good enough to rely on it, rather than a 2-2 split.

Finally, guessing cards held usually by the declarer, but occasionally by the defense is to me the largest distinguishing factor between the greatest players (world class) and the ones next below them ready to emerge.

Again thanks for your time consuming analysis.

Hi Mircea1,

Remember, this hand was played in an important money tournament wherein some of the best players in the world were performing, so that slams should likely be bid, if all that remains to score it up, as here, is guessing how to play the trump suit.

Where the a priori numerical odds favor a 3-1 break to 2-2 by a 50 to 40 ratio with 4-0 about 10%, while at the table and top level players competing, my opinion is that those odds change to perhaps at least 2 to 1 in favor of guessing it right instead of only 5 to 4 especially when 4-0 breaks either way, can be handled without loss.

No doubt, I feel the same way you do about the BWTA and prefer bidding 2 spades, rather than risk a penalty pass. However, there are many very good players who would think passing (with that problem hand a slam dunk and take one’s chances on that result).

My reasons (possibly similar to yours) are simply that defending is much more difficult than being declarer and the opening lead is basically blind, although we have opened and expect a heart lead.

However, if the 2 diamond bidder is a good player he is likely to play the hand to his best advantage which is not good news to us. And the kicker and deal breaker to me is that passing is so final, but bidding keeps our options open (except likely for defending a diamond contract) and low and behold we probably will be able to bid this hand to the best makeable game with even the possibility of a slam still in the air, although very unlikely.

To add to that, if partner (bless him) sees us passing his TO double he may be very reluctant in the future to double being void in the opponents suit but at the same time not having primary support for our opened major suit, but including even 5+ of the other major and unbid minor.

The above is possibly only irrational fear, but being around bridge for so many years tends to recall that feeling, and indeed, not a good one.

Hi Jim2 & Mircea1,

You two seemed to have covered the bases with your discussion of which red suit to play the slam.

If your bidding system, especially when the opponents jack up the bidding allows you to guess enough about each other’s hand to know exactly what to do, even with various forms of key card BW available (which has always been overrated to my way of thinking) I bow to your judgment, especially between the two of you.

Not bowing out, but only using discretion before entering, but happy to answer any specific question where I may be able to help.

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