On the first hand (“Big Risk”), I would add that there is one important fact not highlighted in the text.

Specifically, responder is a passed hand. This should help keep pard from going crazy unless pard holds a crazy hand.

Additionally, the failure of RHO to raise to four hearts should warn pard both that you are likely to hold heart length/values and that RHO must have some defensive values BEHIND the doubler’s strong hand.

On the last hand, playing 4-suit transfers, I would think that transfer to diamonds followed by a pick-a-slam 5NT has some value, although Bobby’s suggestion, as always, also makes sense.

Bob

Hi Jim2,

At the risk of my answer thought to be criticism of your known top drawer superior bridge mind, I will directly answer what I think.

Yes and no doubt, pass may be the last chance for your side to achieve a plus score but the price for seeking it (at least on this problem) is just too
great to consider, only because by so doing the partner of the TO doubler could be void in hearts (or even easily a not large enough singleton, but a reasonable TO dbl. expecting you not to seek a small penalty by what could be thought of as an overreach.

On percentage (totally guessing) your side figures to go set one trick (after bidding, not passing) and so does their side, if you choose to pass.

However, that common sense approach is not nearly enough for you to chance it, simply because to do so, is taking much too risky an approach if keeping harmony in your partnership is as vital as I think it should be.

Obviously the number of possibilities is indeed unknown (thus infinite), but the tactics while trying to be right are vast, involving lucky or unlucky leads as well as merely flipping a coin as to how the other 39 cards are distributed as well as how adept is that declarer and how lucky the defense turns out to be.

Without going any further, at least IMO, it is just too dangerous, partnership wise, to do anything but bid a simple 3 spades and let the devil take the hindmost.

Thanks for your always courage in presenting crucial factors available, especially during the very early bidding.

My suggestion: Speak softly and , if possible, choose a middle road offering normal results, rather than a monstrous final decision when such a wide range of possibilities still remain.
bold decision

Hi again Jim2,

My proofreading was cut short by my relatively new machine, causing me to not correct an early error in my diatribe, regarding whom is short in hearts, certainly the doubler, not his partner.

Sorry for that possible early significant distraction.

Hi Robert,

Yes, if a partnership is playing 4 suit transfers, this hand, for scientific purposes, will always be blessed with an extra gadget to use.

However, the opponents are also listening and once in a while that extra information for the offense becomes a liability to them by chance, but in this case it doesn’t figure to. However I guess, since a grand slam in diamonds might be in the cards and is worth making the effort to get there instead of settling for less, makes logical sense.

Thanks Bob for joining us and please always feel invited..

Hi Bobby,

I think Jim2 was just offering further support for bidding 3S by pointing out the reasons partner would have for not running with your bid (ie, you are a passed hand and there was no 4H raise).

Dear Host,

Jeff S directly above has the right of it. I was espousing 3S, not Pass.

Hi Jim2 & Jeff,

Thanks for the explanation, an example of my recent illness, Theory of Calamitous
Mindset. Hope it is not contagious.