I haven’t looked at the explanation of how the hand needs to be played yet, and after much scribbling and erasing on paper, here’s how I think South can make this work…
After taking the initial lead of the spade 6 w/ a high spade in hand, I play a heart to the ace, then a second heart back to dummy’s jack, taking the finesse. Success! To me, this is the key play. If I play dummy’s heart king at this point, I seem to end up short an entry to the dummy later on and won’t have anyway to get back to the dummy to play my safe hearts for discards.
And when the jack finesse works, I lead a trump from dummy and learn what the actual trump split is. After the play of two trump, I know the remaining two trump are with East. I next play dummy’s H king and react to E’s play accordingly.
Whatever E plays, I know the H queen is w/ W so I don’t have to worry about W trumping my king. If E trumps the king, I overtrump in hand and if not, I discard a loser from my hand and keep playing hearts from dummy, either discarding more losers or overtrumping.
If and when E trumps one of my hearts, I can overtrump in hand, pull E’s remaining trump ending up back in dummy, and then play off the good hearts I have left.
Ah… I just peeked at the explanation, and I see that while the finesse of the heart jack at trick three is not mentioned, a finesse is involved in making the hand one way or another.
I had seen the possibility of a club finesse working and wanted to see if I could find some other route thru the hand. I think what I did do works, no?
Robert LiptonJuly 13th, 2023 at 8:22 pm
Indeed it does, but the finesse is not the best play for the hearts. It’s basically a 50% chance, while playing for the 3/2 split is 68%; both odds are modified by the post priori count of the spades. That is not enough, I am confident, to overcome the 18% differential. Also, you always have the club hook to fall back on. As Bobby notes, it works, but doesn’t improve your chances, becoming, in fact, a practice finesse. Bobby’s line always works whenever the spades and hearts break (46%), plus when the spades break and the hearts don’t, but the club hook is on (11%), for a 57% shot.
However, your successful line is an example of why Mrs. Guggenheim occasionally puts one over the unlucky expert.
Bob Lipton
jim2July 13th, 2023 at 8:51 pm
David S –
It does indeed work on this layout. On other layouts, it gets complicated.
I know I should leave it at that, but I am on travel so I got a bit of free time.
First of all, in the text hand and line of play, note that declarer got only two discards on the Hs. That is, he followed suit to the first two, ruffed the third to establish the suit, and overruffed on the fourth. Thus, only the fifth and sixth provided discards. This means that declarer had a minor suit loser at the last trick. If the long trump had been with West, declarer would have gotten three discards but one would have been ruffed by West. This would then transpose to the column line when declarer won the return and led to Board (drawing last trump) to win any remaining Hs before taking the club finesse.
Thus, playing the two top Hs wins if the QH drops, if trump are 3-2, or on 4-1 splits if the KC is onside (no matter who has long trump).
If the H finesse wins, declarer plays another high Board trump and makes 7 if spades break. If they do not, then declarer runs Hs and it does not matter which defender has long trump (same as text line) but with no club finesse required.
If the JH loses, the Hs are established, but they cannot be run if trump are 4-1 unless the long trumps are onside for overruff.
If East returns a diamond or trump, declarer crosses to Board with second trump and draws the last trump if 3-2 and runs Hs and no club finesse is required. If trump are 1-4, use column line but now the overruff is required, along with the club finesse.
If East returns a club, declarer must finesse if trump are 1-4 but not if trump are 3-2, but declarer does not yet know the trump position!
It is even more complicated if East returns the last H! If trump are 3-2, declarer must ruff high, then draw trump and run Hs and take club finesse. If trump are 1-4, ruffing would leave declarer a trick short even with the club finesse.)
So, your line gains when the H finesse wins, sometimes breaks even when it does not, and loses most other times.
I may have gotten some or all of that wrong, but now my head hurts so I’m stopping.
bobbywolffJuly 13th, 2023 at 10:01 pm
Hi David, Bob, & Jim2,
First Jim2, my head has already started to hurt since I have already read through 55 lines,
all of which has passed scrutiny, although scrutiny is a good closer, but somewhat slow on the uptick.
Our group was somewhat slow to point out that leading a singleton trump is indeed unusual since West has a choice between a conservative club and an aggressive diamond, both of which, look superior, rather than catch partner with quite a few 4 card holdings which combine, to make that lead much too devastating, to attempt, although today, it made little difference.
And although I may have by luck, gotten some or all of that right, but my head has stopped hurting, so why should I keep going. unless some good soul puts another nickel in.
A V Ramana RaoJuly 14th, 2023 at 2:26 pm
Hi David
Jim2 covered rather exhaustively but I thought that I would add a couple of points.
First, it must be clear that if hearts are 4-1 either way, the contract has very few chances when West has four of them and three trumps or west has stiff Q and doubleton trump.Declarer can draw two trumps and go after hearts but that play would be far-fetched. And since declarer contracted only for twelve tricks and not thirteen, ruffing third heart has a lock as long as trumps break in fact thirteen tricks with club K favourable. But today, trumps don’t break but as club K is placed favourably declarer can use hearts as reserve trumps and it doesn’t matter even if west held four carded trump ) but his lead is unusual) and takes club finesse.
It would be rather silly to lose a trick to heart Q with east when trumps are benign
Regards
jim2July 14th, 2023 at 3:19 pm
AVRR –
Say, West dropped the QH on the AH.
Declarer leads the 4H:
1) If West ruffs, Board follows small and Hs are now set up and the longest trump holding by any defender is the same as the Board. Thus, Declarer wins West’s return, draws trump, and runs Hs. This is 5 spades, 5H, and 2 minor aces.
2) If West discards, Board wins the H, declarer ruffs low H high, establishing Hs, crosses to top S on Board, and runs Hs. Either defender can ruff, but declarer wins return, finishes drawing trump, continues Hs. In this scenario, declarer has 5S + 4Hs and 2 aces, and must take the Club finesse.
A V Ramana RaoJuly 14th, 2023 at 3:34 pm
Jim2
I thought that I typed except ( after contract has very few chances). Now I don’t find it ( senility?)
Regards
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Morning, all…
I haven’t looked at the explanation of how the hand needs to be played yet, and after much scribbling and erasing on paper, here’s how I think South can make this work…
After taking the initial lead of the spade 6 w/ a high spade in hand, I play a heart to the ace, then a second heart back to dummy’s jack, taking the finesse. Success! To me, this is the key play. If I play dummy’s heart king at this point, I seem to end up short an entry to the dummy later on and won’t have anyway to get back to the dummy to play my safe hearts for discards.
And when the jack finesse works, I lead a trump from dummy and learn what the actual trump split is. After the play of two trump, I know the remaining two trump are with East. I next play dummy’s H king and react to E’s play accordingly.
Whatever E plays, I know the H queen is w/ W so I don’t have to worry about W trumping my king. If E trumps the king, I overtrump in hand and if not, I discard a loser from my hand and keep playing hearts from dummy, either discarding more losers or overtrumping.
If and when E trumps one of my hearts, I can overtrump in hand, pull E’s remaining trump ending up back in dummy, and then play off the good hearts I have left.
Ah… I just peeked at the explanation, and I see that while the finesse of the heart jack at trick three is not mentioned, a finesse is involved in making the hand one way or another.
I had seen the possibility of a club finesse working and wanted to see if I could find some other route thru the hand. I think what I did do works, no?
Indeed it does, but the finesse is not the best play for the hearts. It’s basically a 50% chance, while playing for the 3/2 split is 68%; both odds are modified by the post priori count of the spades. That is not enough, I am confident, to overcome the 18% differential. Also, you always have the club hook to fall back on. As Bobby notes, it works, but doesn’t improve your chances, becoming, in fact, a practice finesse. Bobby’s line always works whenever the spades and hearts break (46%), plus when the spades break and the hearts don’t, but the club hook is on (11%), for a 57% shot.
However, your successful line is an example of why Mrs. Guggenheim occasionally puts one over the unlucky expert.
Bob Lipton
David S –
It does indeed work on this layout. On other layouts, it gets complicated.
I know I should leave it at that, but I am on travel so I got a bit of free time.
First of all, in the text hand and line of play, note that declarer got only two discards on the Hs. That is, he followed suit to the first two, ruffed the third to establish the suit, and overruffed on the fourth. Thus, only the fifth and sixth provided discards. This means that declarer had a minor suit loser at the last trick. If the long trump had been with West, declarer would have gotten three discards but one would have been ruffed by West. This would then transpose to the column line when declarer won the return and led to Board (drawing last trump) to win any remaining Hs before taking the club finesse.
Thus, playing the two top Hs wins if the QH drops, if trump are 3-2, or on 4-1 splits if the KC is onside (no matter who has long trump).
If the H finesse wins, declarer plays another high Board trump and makes 7 if spades break. If they do not, then declarer runs Hs and it does not matter which defender has long trump (same as text line) but with no club finesse required.
If the JH loses, the Hs are established, but they cannot be run if trump are 4-1 unless the long trumps are onside for overruff.
If East returns a diamond or trump, declarer crosses to Board with second trump and draws the last trump if 3-2 and runs Hs and no club finesse is required. If trump are 1-4, use column line but now the overruff is required, along with the club finesse.
If East returns a club, declarer must finesse if trump are 1-4 but not if trump are 3-2, but declarer does not yet know the trump position!
It is even more complicated if East returns the last H! If trump are 3-2, declarer must ruff high, then draw trump and run Hs and take club finesse. If trump are 1-4, ruffing would leave declarer a trick short even with the club finesse.)
So, your line gains when the H finesse wins, sometimes breaks even when it does not, and loses most other times.
I may have gotten some or all of that wrong, but now my head hurts so I’m stopping.
Hi David, Bob, & Jim2,
First Jim2, my head has already started to hurt since I have already read through 55 lines,
all of which has passed scrutiny, although scrutiny is a good closer, but somewhat slow on the uptick.
Our group was somewhat slow to point out that leading a singleton trump is indeed unusual since West has a choice between a conservative club and an aggressive diamond, both of which, look superior, rather than catch partner with quite a few 4 card holdings which combine, to make that lead much too devastating, to attempt, although today, it made little difference.
And although I may have by luck, gotten some or all of that right, but my head has stopped hurting, so why should I keep going. unless some good soul puts another nickel in.
Hi David
Jim2 covered rather exhaustively but I thought that I would add a couple of points.
First, it must be clear that if hearts are 4-1 either way, the contract has very few chances when West has four of them and three trumps or west has stiff Q and doubleton trump.Declarer can draw two trumps and go after hearts but that play would be far-fetched. And since declarer contracted only for twelve tricks and not thirteen, ruffing third heart has a lock as long as trumps break in fact thirteen tricks with club K favourable. But today, trumps don’t break but as club K is placed favourably declarer can use hearts as reserve trumps and it doesn’t matter even if west held four carded trump ) but his lead is unusual) and takes club finesse.
It would be rather silly to lose a trick to heart Q with east when trumps are benign
Regards
AVRR –
Say, West dropped the QH on the AH.
Declarer leads the 4H:
1) If West ruffs, Board follows small and Hs are now set up and the longest trump holding by any defender is the same as the Board. Thus, Declarer wins West’s return, draws trump, and runs Hs. This is 5 spades, 5H, and 2 minor aces.
2) If West discards, Board wins the H, declarer ruffs low H high, establishing Hs, crosses to top S on Board, and runs Hs. Either defender can ruff, but declarer wins return, finishes drawing trump, continues Hs. In this scenario, declarer has 5S + 4Hs and 2 aces, and must take the Club finesse.
Jim2
I thought that I typed except ( after contract has very few chances). Now I don’t find it ( senility?)
Regards
Another new friend! 🙂