Is it really sensible for West to lead the C10 back here (loose lips sink ships)? What else is East likely to play back after getting his ruff after all, especially as West knows East doesn’t have the SK or much at all apart from the CK? If East held K9xx in spades and Q109x in Diamonds then the spade 9 back, even if South didn’t have the SJ could be destructive of South’s morale even if he / she didn’t have the SJ. Declarer could run it but might instead assume the C being 5-2 upped the chance of East having D length so played for East to have DQxxx and the long diamond can be set up for a spade discard. The second spade gets dumped on the DA and the HQ is a re-entry to the 5th diamond. Not today, though!
Your point on a diamond lead was interesting. How enthusiastic should West be about leading round into a strong NT here though? I’d certainly prefer a club from (say) K9xx Ax 10x 108xxx at pairs although I admit IMPs might be different. One interesting regular column in “English Bridge” is an opening lead quiz conducted by Alan Mould. He has access to computer simulations which attempt to give an alternative answer to human judgement, obviously subject to the bidding. The differences are sometimes dramatic.
Regards,
Iain
bobbywolffMarch 19th, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Of course, the dramatic ones become what people remember and try and emulate them into reality instead of relying on what may be “down the middle” reasoning suggesting conservative action.
My actual call on many to most of these challenges is a simple, “you pays your money you takes your choice”. While trying not to show preference to neither aggressive nor conservative, a simple example like we are now considering fits into this weeks’ plans, like it will continue to play itself into being used, simply because that feature is what this or that card was born to be.
Accurate or not, no better plan is likely to determine unless the decider misses a golden chance to shine because of some bid or play was either made or not made, revealing that player’s vote in this race to the finish.
bobbywolffMarch 19th, 2024 at 8:33 pm
Finally,
If one gets a 5% difference in success, regard that as a strict toss-up but 50% or more worth the gamble IOW MINOR differences are not worth determining but 50-50 choices
are approximately when they start.
Iain ClimieMarch 19th, 2024 at 11:23 pm
Hi Bobby,
Thanks for that. In terms of getting an edge though, don’t casinos hae a 1 in 37 edge (so less than 3%) and they do well enough. I’ll take anything I can get.
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Hi Bobby,
Is it really sensible for West to lead the C10 back here (loose lips sink ships)? What else is East likely to play back after getting his ruff after all, especially as West knows East doesn’t have the SK or much at all apart from the CK? If East held K9xx in spades and Q109x in Diamonds then the spade 9 back, even if South didn’t have the SJ could be destructive of South’s morale even if he / she didn’t have the SJ. Declarer could run it but might instead assume the C being 5-2 upped the chance of East having D length so played for East to have DQxxx and the long diamond can be set up for a spade discard. The second spade gets dumped on the DA and the HQ is a re-entry to the 5th diamond. Not today, though!
Your point on a diamond lead was interesting. How enthusiastic should West be about leading round into a strong NT here though? I’d certainly prefer a club from (say) K9xx Ax 10x 108xxx at pairs although I admit IMPs might be different. One interesting regular column in “English Bridge” is an opening lead quiz conducted by Alan Mould. He has access to computer simulations which attempt to give an alternative answer to human judgement, obviously subject to the bidding. The differences are sometimes dramatic.
Regards,
Iain
Of course, the dramatic ones become what people remember and try and emulate them into reality instead of relying on what may be “down the middle” reasoning suggesting conservative action.
My actual call on many to most of these challenges is a simple, “you pays your money you takes your choice”. While trying not to show preference to neither aggressive nor conservative, a simple example like we are now considering fits into this weeks’ plans, like it will continue to play itself into being used, simply because that feature is what this or that card was born to be.
Accurate or not, no better plan is likely to determine unless the decider misses a golden chance to shine because of some bid or play was either made or not made, revealing that player’s vote in this race to the finish.
Finally,
If one gets a 5% difference in success, regard that as a strict toss-up but 50% or more worth the gamble IOW MINOR differences are not worth determining but 50-50 choices
are approximately when they start.
Hi Bobby,
Thanks for that. In terms of getting an edge though, don’t casinos hae a 1 in 37 edge (so less than 3%) and they do well enough. I’ll take anything I can get.
Iain