How about S winning the CQ, leading a H to the Q and leading a D to the 8? This works, even if E plays the 10, and may work on quite a few other layouts of the D suit.
jim2August 4th, 2021 at 12:02 pm
That was my line, as well.
My reasoning was that “we” had not bid either major, yet West led a club into the closed hand and East did not play either top club honor so as to lead another through the closed hand. Thus, West must have started with 5 or 6 to the AK. This, in turn, meant that any red suit finesse should be through East because:
1) that was the danger hand (for a club lead-through),
2) the hand that had the most non-clubs, and
3) West would also be more likely to lead a low club if that player held no likely off-suit entry card(s).
bobbywolffAugust 4th, 2021 at 2:57 pm
Hi David & Jim2,
I’ll write to you together since you are both offering compound reasons for your intellectually, correct declarer opinion.
I certainly agree to your overall “feeling” about the overall play after, and, of course, review of the bidding, and the choice of opening lead by
what I know, to be a 1st class player himself.
While, pondering what to do at trick 2 (and then 3) is too early to be anywhere sure which I deem to be the key cards, which to me narrows down to the 10 of diamonds (and also the queen) as well as the likelihood of East holding both spade honors, although since East figured to be longer in spades than West, it might still be close to 60% or slightly higher that East did not hold both, and in clubs, although since West had not passed originally it was far from certain since West had the obvious AK and length (5 or, but not particularly likely, 6) or methinks he would, after listening to the bidding, never had led one with fewer.
Thus the chosen correct play basically narrows down to whether West held one of the two spade honors and, or either diamond honor (Q or10).
Thus, although I am not firmly voicing a different opinion to either of you, I am just trying to separate the particulars, so that the thinking involved becomes somewhat more simple.
No doubt, though if taking the wrong view on this specific hand and being successful (testing diamonds) the declarer, IMO, would not have been written up, so if adding in that factor to the victor (this declarer) go the spoils.
Yes, in retrospect I think trying to make this hand in diamonds is the better choice, when, and if done, does not also need the jack of hearts to be downed.
Downplaying the “feel” which led to the drama and instead extolling what appears (at least to me) the better option.
Either (or both), and if others are interested, your move.
Iain ClimieAugust 4th, 2021 at 3:33 pm
Hi Bobby,
Would you have still led a club today as West, though? A passive spade (even if the 8) makes declarer’s task harder I suspect. Obviously South’s club holding is nebulous, especially if he might rebid 1N to get the hand type over even with 4H or 4S – it could be Jxxx (even 3 if he would hide 4H or 4S) up to QJ108x.
Regards,
Iain
bobbywolffAugust 4th, 2021 at 4:27 pm
Hi Iain,
Yes, I know I would lead a club, especially while holding the 9 along with the AK. At least to me, if not leading a club is close to, if not classically a mastermind (not recommended), I would not then know what one is.
The NS bidding, particularly the choice of South will vary according to their views encompassing rebids or overlooks of 4 card majors in favor of balanced hands with 1NT. However, since those views, likely including mine, may not be engraved with consistency, and not particularly for strategic purposes, but just being so close in effectiveness and hoping to be thought of as a difficult opponent, plus the advantage
which, in its absence, will cease to be an adversary’s G2.
Finally, and for emphasis, in the early days of critiques with the Aces, circa late 1960’s, if one did not lead a low club, regardless of result, would simply be a black charge (the worst).
Iain ClimieAugust 4th, 2021 at 6:06 pm
Hi Bobby,
Thanks for that and the black charge appears not to be the domain of “results merchants”. The EBU’s magazine “English Bridge” comes with a lead problem page set by Alan Mould and based on hands submitted by readers or which he has seen himself. Every so often, after giving an intelligent and thorough discussion of the different options (usally 4-off, not necessarily each different suit) and the marks he gives each, he concludes “But what do I know? At the table, the seemingly inferior 3rd choice worked and nothing else did…”
Iain
bobbywolffAugust 4th, 2021 at 7:09 pm
Hi Iain,
Yes, the opening lead is likely in bridge, the most difficult single chore any player should expect.
Thus and it follows, if the above is true (and, for the record, so do I) John Brown, the noted British bridge author “Winning Defence” perhaps his greatest effort, about 80+ years ago, made the following comment (at least close to exact) , “If any player made the right (or effective) opening lead every time, he would win every Bridge World Championship”.
Since even cheats couldn’t rise to that occasion every time, I heartily concur.
BTW, your post seemed to confirm that since there is often more than two choices available, it is no wonder that most all bridge combatants, and at all levels of play, have a less than 50% chance at success.
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How about S winning the CQ, leading a H to the Q and leading a D to the 8? This works, even if E plays the 10, and may work on quite a few other layouts of the D suit.
That was my line, as well.
My reasoning was that “we” had not bid either major, yet West led a club into the closed hand and East did not play either top club honor so as to lead another through the closed hand. Thus, West must have started with 5 or 6 to the AK. This, in turn, meant that any red suit finesse should be through East because:
1) that was the danger hand (for a club lead-through),
2) the hand that had the most non-clubs, and
3) West would also be more likely to lead a low club if that player held no likely off-suit entry card(s).
Hi David & Jim2,
I’ll write to you together since you are both offering compound reasons for your intellectually, correct declarer opinion.
I certainly agree to your overall “feeling” about the overall play after, and, of course, review of the bidding, and the choice of opening lead by
what I know, to be a 1st class player himself.
While, pondering what to do at trick 2 (and then 3) is too early to be anywhere sure which I deem to be the key cards, which to me narrows down to the 10 of diamonds (and also the queen) as well as the likelihood of East holding both spade honors, although since East figured to be longer in spades than West, it might still be close to 60% or slightly higher that East did not hold both, and in clubs, although since West had not passed originally it was far from certain since West had the obvious AK and length (5 or, but not particularly likely, 6) or methinks he would, after listening to the bidding, never had led one with fewer.
Thus the chosen correct play basically narrows down to whether West held one of the two spade honors and, or either diamond honor (Q or10).
Thus, although I am not firmly voicing a different opinion to either of you, I am just trying to separate the particulars, so that the thinking involved becomes somewhat more simple.
No doubt, though if taking the wrong view on this specific hand and being successful (testing diamonds) the declarer, IMO, would not have been written up, so if adding in that factor to the victor (this declarer) go the spoils.
Yes, in retrospect I think trying to make this hand in diamonds is the better choice, when, and if done, does not also need the jack of hearts to be downed.
Downplaying the “feel” which led to the drama and instead extolling what appears (at least to me) the better option.
Either (or both), and if others are interested, your move.
Hi Bobby,
Would you have still led a club today as West, though? A passive spade (even if the 8) makes declarer’s task harder I suspect. Obviously South’s club holding is nebulous, especially if he might rebid 1N to get the hand type over even with 4H or 4S – it could be Jxxx (even 3 if he would hide 4H or 4S) up to QJ108x.
Regards,
Iain
Hi Iain,
Yes, I know I would lead a club, especially while holding the 9 along with the AK. At least to me, if not leading a club is close to, if not classically a mastermind (not recommended), I would not then know what one is.
The NS bidding, particularly the choice of South will vary according to their views encompassing rebids or overlooks of 4 card majors in favor of balanced hands with 1NT. However, since those views, likely including mine, may not be engraved with consistency, and not particularly for strategic purposes, but just being so close in effectiveness and hoping to be thought of as a difficult opponent, plus the advantage
which, in its absence, will cease to be an adversary’s G2.
Finally, and for emphasis, in the early days of critiques with the Aces, circa late 1960’s, if one did not lead a low club, regardless of result, would simply be a black charge (the worst).
Hi Bobby,
Thanks for that and the black charge appears not to be the domain of “results merchants”. The EBU’s magazine “English Bridge” comes with a lead problem page set by Alan Mould and based on hands submitted by readers or which he has seen himself. Every so often, after giving an intelligent and thorough discussion of the different options (usally 4-off, not necessarily each different suit) and the marks he gives each, he concludes “But what do I know? At the table, the seemingly inferior 3rd choice worked and nothing else did…”
Iain
Hi Iain,
Yes, the opening lead is likely in bridge, the most difficult single chore any player should expect.
Thus and it follows, if the above is true (and, for the record, so do I) John Brown, the noted British bridge author “Winning Defence” perhaps his greatest effort, about 80+ years ago, made the following comment (at least close to exact) , “If any player made the right (or effective) opening lead every time, he would win every Bridge World Championship”.
Since even cheats couldn’t rise to that occasion every time, I heartily concur.
BTW, your post seemed to confirm that since there is often more than two choices available, it is no wonder that most all bridge combatants, and at all levels of play, have a less than 50% chance at success.