Other things being equal, the D finesse is 50-5r0while the clubs come home if the suit is 3-3 (36%) or 4-2 with J dropping (1/3 of 28% so 16%) or there is a stiff J with C 5-1 (1/6 of 15% so 2.5%). The club suit looks better until you realise that H are surely 7-4 (East would raise with 5 trumps I feel) which maybe pushes that figure down a fair bit and the choice becomes a toss up. Shouldn’t West bid 4H though – now what does N do? 4S is timid, 5H an overbid, 5S is ambiguous without agreement, 4N may not get the info needed and double may not help partner much.
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Hi Barry, Folks,
Other things being equal, the D finesse is 50-5r0while the clubs come home if the suit is 3-3 (36%) or 4-2 with J dropping (1/3 of 28% so 16%) or there is a stiff J with C 5-1 (1/6 of 15% so 2.5%). The club suit looks better until you realise that H are surely 7-4 (East would raise with 5 trumps I feel) which maybe pushes that figure down a fair bit and the choice becomes a toss up. Shouldn’t West bid 4H though – now what does N do? 4S is timid, 5H an overbid, 5S is ambiguous without agreement, 4N may not get the info needed and double may not help partner much.
Regards,
Iain